Gordie Howe, Meet John Maynard Keynes

Gordie Howe, Meet John Maynard Keynes

The Gordie Howe International Bridge risks becoming an enduring symbol of Canada-U.S. relations, but for all the wrong reasons. 

The news last week that Canada and the US had reached a deal that would open the bridge to cross border traffic dripped in irony.  A bridge named after the hockey legend whose elbows inspired Canada’s rallying cry against Donald Trump opening only after Ottawa accommodated Washington’s bully tactics.

The Gordie Howe Bridge set to officially open on July 27, 2026

But the agreement is also a window into how Mark Carney governs.

Trump blocked a completed bridge that Canada financed even if Ottawa had every factual, legal and moral argument on its side.  And it was Washington that went into the corners with its elbows up and Canada that turtled.

The bridge is now scheduled to open on July 27. According to media reports, the settlement gives Washington new influence over significant toll decisions while directing half of the bridge’s future net profits to a 15-year regional economic development fund.

Under the original arrangement, Canada expected to recover its investment through toll revenues before Michigan shared in the profits. The new agreement pushes that recovery much farther into the future, although Ottawa has yet to disclose by how much.

That matters because time is the hidden currency of politics.

Economist John Maynard Keynes famously observed that “in the long run, we are all dead.” The Gordie Howe agreement suggests Ottawa has adopted much the same philosophy: Solve today’s problem; leave tomorrow’s consequences to someone else.

Carney has shown that he thinks like an economist and governs like a central banker.

That does not make him apolitical. Quite the opposite. He is deeply political — his approval ratings are evidence of this. But he approaches politics as a continuing exercise in trade-offs, optimization and risk management where the future is discounted and the immediate objective is the priority.

Central bankers operate much the same way. They calm markets, restore confidence, contain shocks and prevent today’s instability from becoming tomorrow’s panic.

But a country is not a balance sheet. Sovereignty, credibility and strategic leverage cannot always be assigned a present value and traded for short-term stability.

Observing Mark Carney increasingly suggests that he treats red lines not as principles to defend, but as obstacles to clear.

Consider the Digital Services Tax. Trump halted trade negotiations. Ottawa quickly rescinded a policy years in the making to restart them. The government openly described the reversal as the price of advancing broader negotiations with Washington.

Last week, Carney became the first Canadian prime minister in 26 years to visit Saudi Arabia, reversing a long period of political distance from a regime whose human rights record remains appalling. His explanation had the polished efficiency of a central bank communiqué: “Engagement is not endorsement.” Lecturing governments from afar, he added, is ineffective.

Each decision can be defended on its own merits. Taken together, Carney’s governing doctrine appears to be this:  Address today’s problem; leave the consequences to tomorrow.

Carney often says Canada must deal with the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.

That may sound like steely-eyed realism, but realism without anchoring principles is not statecraft. It becomes serial accommodation.

Every concession changes the world as it is. Reward coercion today and coercion becomes more likely tomorrow. Treat every red line as provisional and adversaries learn that Canadian resistance has a price, and enough pressure will reveal it.

That may be the lasting significance of the Gordie Howe bridge agreement.

“Elbows Up” promised that Canada would absorb short-term pain to protect its long-term independence. Carney appears ready to reverse that bargain.

He secures immediate relief by transferring the cost, the precedent and the lost leverage into the future.

The bridge will open. Traffic will move.

The government will declare the crisis resolved and celebrate Canada-U.S. trade.

But a bridge can carry more than vehicles. This one carries a warning.

Mark Carney governs as though the future can always absorb one more political compromise.

Keynes may have been right, after all, in the long run, we will indeed all be dead.  But that will be cold comfort for future generations.

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